[問題]大全20-1

[stupidboy93]

In the first half of this year, from January to June, about three million videocassette recorders were sold. This number is only 35 percent of the total number of videocassette recorders sold last year. Therefore, total sales of videocassette recorders will almost certainly be lower for this year than they were for last year.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?
(A) The total number of videocassette recorders sold last year was lower than the total number sold in the year before that.
(B) Most people who are interested in owning a videocassette recorder have already purchased one.
(C) Videocassette recorders are less expensive this year than they were last year.
(D) Of the videocassette recorders sold last year, almost 60 percent were sold in January.
(E) Typically, over 70 percent of the sales of videocassette recorders made in a year occur in the months of November and December.

答案是E

可是我覺得e選項並不能weaken啊，因為兩者70％的銷售量都會在年底，所以去年的銷售量還是有極大可能會超過今年的，
不過d選項，就極有可能今年會超過去年的銷售量，所以我覺得d選項來的比e選項強，可以請各位解答一下嗎？不知道是不是答案錯誤，謝謝！

[zazer.lin]

In the first half of this year, from January to June, about three million videocassette recorders were sold. This number is only 35 percent of the total number of videocassette recorders sold last year. Therefore, total sales of videocassette recorders will almost certainly be lower for this year than they were for last year.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?
(A) The total number of videocassette recorders sold last year was lower than the total number sold in the year before that.
(B) Most people who are interested in owning a videocassette recorder have already purchased one.
(C) Videocassette recorders are less expensive this year than they were last year.
(D) Of the videocassette recorders sold last year, almost 60 percent were sold in January.
(E) Typically, over 70 percent of the sales of videocassette recorders made in a year occur in the months of November and December.

題目的意思是說今年一月到六月的銷售量為去年一整年的35%, 所以這句話是事實, 而(D)選項是說去年的一月銷售額戰全年的60%, 小弟認為(D)選項之所以不合適是因為作者已經把今年一月到六月的銷售數字給定了,意即這是無法改變的事實,(D)選項才會不合適.

反觀(E)選項說11月和12的銷售額通常占全年70%,意即前半年銷售額的不理想可以靠11月和12月來彌補.

小弟對於這題的想法是題目有給定1月到6月的銷售數字,我就把這個當成是過去的事實,題目中並沒有給定下半年的銷售額,所以就把下半年當成是未來.

小弟的愚見,供您參考,如有不對的地方,還望各位前備指正.