[問題]gwd-3-31

[訪客]

Q32:
Although most smoking-related illnesses are caused by inhaling the tar in tobacco smoke, it is addiction to nicotine that prevents most smokers from quitting. In
an effort to decrease the incidence of smoking-related illnesses, lawmakers in Sandonia plan to reduce the average quantity of nicotine per cigarette by half over the next five years. Unfortunately, smokers who are already addicted to nicotine tend to react to such reductions by smoking correspondingly more cigarettes.

The information above most strongly supports which of the following predictions about the effects of implementing the Sandonian government’s plan?

A.The average quantity of tar inhaled by Sandonian smokers who are currently addicted to nicotine will probably not decrease during the next five years.
B.Sandonian smokers who are not already addicted to nicotine will probably also begin to smoke more cigarettes during the next five years than they had previously.
C.The annual number of Sandonian smokers developing smoking-related illnesses will probably decrease during the next five years.
D.The proportion of Sandonians attempting to quit smoking who succeed in that attempt will probably decrease during the next five years.
E.The number of Sandonians who quit smoking during the next five years will probably exceed the number who quit during the last five years.



答案給A請教其思路

[micht]

每根煙 average quantity of nicotine 減少

但 Unfortunately, smokers who are already addicted to nicotine tend to react to such reductions by smoking correspondingly more cigarettes.

原因是什麼? 因為煙癮大者 會抽夠多煙來滿足 nicotine 量

選(A)
The average quantity of tar inhaled by Sandonian smokers who are currently addicted to nicotine will probably not decrease during the next five years.

[Tony]

A 我沒問題,想請教D錯在"過度引申/推論" or "無關"啊??
是不是文章沒提到quit smoking and the propotion就把D刪掉了??

[davidlee0222]

D無法推論

致病的是煙焦油
尼古丁上癮但把尼古丁量減少
反而使吸煙者為了吸足尼古丁量
而多抽幾包煙
只會使致病速度更快

D講曾成功於企圖戒煙的比例在未來五年會下降
本提只講到欲使吸煙量下降反使吸煙量上升
與戒煙人無關
算是超出範圍

[CUGGYER]

請問c沒辦法supprt嗎 抽煙人數減少不能推出 吸入的焦油減少 進而減低發病率?

[zuckzhc]

請問c沒辦法supprt嗎 抽煙人數減少不能推出 吸入的焦油減少 進而減低發病率?

題目問的是The information above most strongly supports which of the following predictions about the effects of implementing the Sandonian government’s plan?

the effects of implementing the Sandonian government’s plan也就是題目中
Unfortunately, smokers who are already addicted to nicotine tend to react to such reductions by smoking correspondingly more cigarettes.

題目沒說吸菸的人減少,反而是說吸菸的人會吸更多根煙,所以焦油的吸入量基本上是不會變的

[Janet]

題目問的是The information above most strongly supports which of the following predictions about the effects of implementing the Sandonian government’s plan?

the effects of implementing the Sandonian government’s plan也就是題目中
Unfortunately, smokers who are already addicted to nicotine tend to react to such reductions by smoking correspondingly more cigarettes.

題目沒說吸菸的人減少,反而是說吸菸的人會吸更多根煙,所以焦油的吸入量基本上是不會變的

我對A沒有疑問,但請問選項E

題目說the effects of implementing the Sandonian government’s plan?(減低nicotine)

這樣不是也可以推導出E.未來人戒菸比較容易...(因為nicotine減量,比較不容易上癮,也比較容易戒菸)?
這樣有過度推論了嗎?

[sawakita0414]

我對A沒有疑問,但請問選項E

題目說the effects of implementing the Sandonian government’s plan?(減低nicotine)

這樣不是也可以推導出E.未來人戒菸比較容易...(因為nicotine減量,比較不容易上癮,也比較容易戒菸)?
這樣有過度推論了嗎?

------------------------------------------------------------
n減量，比較不容易上癮-->可能會，可能不會，但本篇文章內容並沒有討論到，生活中以香煙的例子來講可能的確比較不會上癮，但是因為文章沒講，不能帶入額外的資訊。

n減量，比較容易戒煙-->文章說減量以後，抽煙的人反而需要增量來滿足n，因此沒有比較容易戒掉。

BTW, 容不容易上癮跟戒不戒得掉是不一樣的:)


-
A: cigarette?
B: No.....I quit.
A: oh...oh...nobody likes quitters......

[hwatai]

題幹：每根煙的nicotine↓，但吸煙者的吸煙量↑

(B)　who are not already addicted to nicotine　脫離討論範疇，題目說討論的是who are already addicted to nicotine　
(D)(E) 題目沒說戒煙的事情，無關選項
(C) 錯誤答案中唯一相關選項，但合理推斷吸煙者所吸收的nicotine是應不變，所以C還是不對

[Huang Hsin-Yi]

cd上的答案給C,
但我認為,其答案只是將Sandonian government’s plan 的期望再說一次, 並無support或weaken the predictions of the plan

因此,A選項比較優

[ilovecushi]

個人覺得C 是無關的如同上面某大牛說的議題討論的是上癮無關戒煙當然也無關得病等等
雖然這題我選了E 但是看完討論後同意答案為A
B 是無關比較過去五年跟未來五年 而且講的是沒有隱的人
D 無關選項試圖戒煙的人增加減少無關上癮吧
E 無關比較