大全03-12/13

[CherrieLi]

Questions 12-13 are based on the following.

Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

12.Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?

(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.

(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.

(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.

(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.

(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.

答案B, 請問要如何排除其他選項呢?

13.Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast, aside from the doubt expressed in the passage above?

(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.

(B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.

(C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.

(D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.

(E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.

答案B, 請問為什麼呢? 其他選項應如何排除?

[dibert8]

Q12 weaken 題 (弱化 meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated)
(A) configurations of data 和 model 本身無關
(B) model 精確與否和預測息息相關 (i.e. claim can be evaluated: model 準不準是有程度差別的, model 不準,預測也不準,不是推給 model 不準就沒事了) => 答案長相:否定果
(C) aftermath 範圍不對
(D) support
(E) support

Q13 weaken 題 (弱化 meteorologists’ boast: model 準 => 能預測; 除外 model 不準 => 不能預測)
(A) model 不準; 除外(不能選)
(B) model 不能作,現象還是已知, i.e. 就算沒有 model, 已知有影響 (e.g. 沒有 model 也知燃燒產生二氧化碳在大氣裡會造成氣溫上升) => 答案長相:它因否定果
(C) model 不準; 除外(不能選)
(D) model 準不準和 prerequisite 無關
(E) 無謂比較

[dibert8]

好題!實際考試遇到的就這種,看來大全值得做.

[CherrieLi]

嗯嗯...解釋得很詳細耶...謝謝你...^^