Prep T1-25

[pucka0613]

25. (30261-!-item-!-188;#058&004144)

Twelve years ago and again five years ago, there were extended periods when the Darfir Republic's currency, the pundra, was weak: its value was unusually low relative to the world's most stable currencies. Both times a weak pundra made Darfir's manufactured products a bargain on world markets, and Darfir's exports were up substantially. Now some politicians are saying that, in order to cause another similarly sized increase in exports, the government should allow the pundra to become weak again.

Which of the following, if true, provides the government with the strongest grounds to doubt that the politicians' recommendation, if followed, will achieve its aim?

(A) Several of the politicians now recommending that the pundra be allowed to become weak made that same recommendation before each of the last two periods of currency weakness.
(B) After several decades of operating well below peak capacity, Darfir's manufacturing sector is now operating at near-peak levels.
(C) The economy of a country experiencing a rise in exports will become healthier only if the country's currency is strong or the rise in exports is significant.
(D) Those countries whose manufactured products compete with Darfir's on the world market all currently have stable currencies.
(E) A sharp improvement in the efficiency of Darfir's manufacturing plants would make Darfir's products a bargain on world markets even without any weakening of the pundra relative to other currencies.

答案是B 可是我選C
不太懂 請問是為什麼呢^^??

[stanley705]

這題我也有點搞不懂 為何 B 選項 說 Darfir's manufacturing sector 管理良好 可以去doubt politicians說要幣值走弱以利出口, 請問這兩者之間有什麼樣的關係阿?

[dibert8]

several decades of operating well below peak capacity 表示之前兩次貶值以刺激外銷因為工廠沒訂單
now operating at near-peak levels 現在工廠訂單滿滿,產能滿載,不需貶值就有豐厚的外銷了.

[hey]

選項(C)不可能是因為題目與問題的重點都擺在增加出口上, 而(C)則是將重點擺在經濟會變更healthier...其已轉移焦點了... 所以不能選

[hey]

至於選項(B)則是說, 前幾十年的產能還沒有到達顛峰, 因此幣值下跌, 則會促進生產進而增加而出口增加, 但最近其產能已到達顛峰, 出口已能生產的, 不會因為幣值下跌而使得產能再多且進而促進出口增加了
所以(B)有weaken的效果

[stanley705]

感謝以上大家的解說~大致了解了!

[positivegal]

請問為何(E)不對呢?
產能提高-> 成本下降-> 就算不貶值也很有競爭力

[hey]

題目已經告訴你pundra become weak again, 而你要找出為什麼這個計畫不能達成預定的效果...
(E)的後半段把題目給你的weak pundra改掉, 再使用別的方法達成效果, 豈不有改變題目的意思...
切記CR千萬不能改變題目給你的條件... 因為一旦如此, 則選項一定錯

[dibert8]

增加工廠效率 (E) 不如訂單已經到手 (B).

[a-jan]

整理一下..

(A) Several of the politicians now recommending that the pundra be allowed to become weak made that same recommendation before each of the last two periods of currency weakness.
[沒有 weaken 到politicians, 幾乎把題目又提了一次]

(B) After several decades of operating well below peak capacity, Darfir's manufacturing sector is now operating at near-peak levels.
[ yes, 說明了出口商到了一定的出口水準，而來到了出口的高峰期，並而不是因為 pundra to become weak 才讓出口商大量的出口]

(C) The economy of a country experiencing a rise in exports will become healthier only if the country's currency is strong or the rise in exports is significant. [轉移焦點]

(D) Those countries whose manufactured products compete with Darfir's on the world market all currently have stable currencies. [ 無關比較 ]

(E) A sharp improvement in the efficiency of Darfir's manufacturing plants would make Darfir's products a bargain on world markets even without any weakening of the pundra relative to other currencies.
[ without any weakening of the pundra 改掉了題目原先設好的條件]

希望對路過ㄉ人有幫助些

[chris8888]

(A) Several of the politicians now recommending that the pundra be allowed to become weak made that same recommendation before each of the last two periods of currency weakness.

幾個政客提出建議 <= 她們提不提建議無關

(B) After several decades of operating well below peak capacity, Darfir's manufacturing sector is now operating at near-peak levels.

高峰的產能, D的製造業目前處在產能高峰, 所以即使壓低貨幣價值, 也不能夠刺激出口, 因為無法在生產更多商品了
例如TSMC已經達到最大產能, 目前台幣走貶, 有利出口, 但是要再蓋一座12吋晶圓廠需要3年, 儘管訂單如雪片般飛來, 也不可能可以應急, 因此推翻.

(C) The economy of a country experiencing a rise in exports will become healthier only if the country's currency is strong or the rise in exports is significant.

貨幣強勢, 出口上升會造成健康的經濟 <== irrelevant

(D) Those countries whose manufactured products compete with Darfir's on the world market all currently have stable currencies.

別國有穩定的貨幣 <== irrelevant

(E) A sharp improvement in the efficiency of Darfir's manufacturing plants would make Darfir's products a bargain on world markets even without any weakening of the pundra relative to other currencies.

工場效能改善, 可以讓D國的商品更低廉, 惟有沒有讓自己的幣值貶值相對於其他貨幣. <== 阿題目要你說貶值其實不會造成export的好處, 卻又與題意相反, ㄚ是怎樣?

[irvinne]

我有個疑問想請教一下
這題我推出的因果關係是:
weak currency->export↑
題目要我們weaken

(E)A sharp improvement in the efficiency of Darfir's manufacturing plants would make Darfir's products a bargain on world markets even without any weakening of the pundra relative to other currencies.

翻譯:即使不用貶值 也還是能透過提高工廠效率的方式 使D國貨便宜 進而增加出口量

選項(E)在我眼中的解讀是 排除原有的因素 其他的因素也能造成相同的結果 選項(E)也沒有改變前提的意思吧@@

當然根據前輩的討論 似乎是(B)較佳: 增加工廠效率 (E) 不如訂單已經到手 (B)

我想請問的是:
1. (E)真的有違反前提嗎? 能不能請問是違反內文的那一句?
2. 我推出的因果關係是否有誤?
3. (E)是否具有"他因"的特性

懇請各位先進們點出我思考上的謬誤 謝謝!!

[irvinne]

我有個疑問想請教一下
這題我推出的因果關係是:
weak currency->export↑
題目要我們weaken

(E)A sharp improvement in the efficiency of Darfir's manufacturing plants would make Darfir's products a bargain on world markets even without any weakening of the pundra relative to other currencies.

翻譯:即使不用貶值 也還是能透過提高工廠效率的方式 使D國貨便宜 進而增加出口量

選項(E)在我眼中的解讀是 排除原有的因素 其他的因素也能造成相同的結果 選項(E)也沒有改變前提的意思吧@@

當然根據前輩的討論 似乎是(B)較佳: 增加工廠效率 (E) 不如訂單已經到手 (B)

我想請問的是:
1. (E)真的有違反前提嗎? 能不能請問是違反內文的那一句?
2. 我推出的因果關係是否有誤?
3. (E)是否具有"他因"的特性

懇請各位先進們點出我思考上的謬誤 謝謝!!

[irvinne]

我有個疑問想請教一下
這題我推出的因果關係是:
weak currency->export↑
題目要我們weaken

(E)A sharp improvement in the efficiency of Darfir's manufacturing plants would make Darfir's products a bargain on world markets even without any weakening of the pundra relative to other currencies.

翻譯:即使不用貶值 也還是能透過提高工廠效率的方式 使D國貨便宜 進而增加出口量

選項(E)在我眼中的解讀是 排除原有的因素 其他的因素也能造成相同的結果 選項(E)也沒有改變前提的意思吧@@

當然根據前輩的討論 似乎是(B)較佳: 增加工廠效率 (E) 不如訂單已經到手 (B)

我想請問的是:
1. (E)真的有違反前提嗎? 能不能請問是違反內文的那一句?
2. 我推出的因果關係是否有誤?
3. (E)是否具有"他因"的特性

懇請各位先進們點出我思考上的謬誤 謝謝!!

[Huang Hsin-Yi]

這題我是錯在理解題目要問什麼
Which of the following, if true, provides the government with the strongest grounds to doubt that the politicians' recommendation, if followed, will achieve its aim?

政客建議貶值來讓出口再次增加
那個選項無法達到這個目的?

(B)出口產能已接近高峰,因此就算貶值成長空間有限
(E)工廠效率,產品有競爭力,不用貶值-此選項無針對貶值問題做討論,屬離題選項