大全I-14

[吳]

大全-Ⅰ-14.Because of a recent drought in Florida during the orange-growing season, the price of oranges this season will be three times the usual price. This will drive up the cost of producing orange juice and thus push up the price of orange juice for the consumer.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument above?
(A) The recent drought was not as severe as scientists predicted.
(B) States other than Florida also supply oranges to orange juice manufacturers.
(C) Other ingredients are used in the production of orange juice.
(D) Last year the price of oranges was actually lower than the average price over the past ten years.
(E) The price of oranges will eventually be $0.48 per crate.
B

B有比C好嗎
B好怪喔...漲價3倍不是FACT了嗎?

[td91]

(B) 說別的州也供應orange，所以能抑制價格上揚，防止廠商成本上升，所以weaken，除非題目說Florida的產量佔絕大多數的比例，則乾旱就影響很大了，不然 B 選項是ok的...
還有，漲價是will be ,事實還沒發生

(C) 說有加入其他配方，這算無關選項，因為有無乾旱都有加入這些配方，題目明確說價格和廠商成本是因為乾旱而增加

給你參考一下，有錯麻煩指正一下，謝謝 ....

[sweetymanman]

drought in F
(1)---> Price ↑
(2)--->juice cost ↑
(3)--->price for consumer ↑

我覺得在推論到（1) 的地方有問題：
因為原題說的是 drought in F，範圍是有限定的，若要就簡單的供需來看的話，也是F的供給下降，應該只能推論 price in F 下降
但是題目直接推論到 price of orange decrease, 就提醒了我去比較其他地方的supply狀況，若其他州的生產過剩，那price界未必會改變了
故選項B是 OK 的

另外選項C的部分，同意td91的看法
由於 Other ingredients 並沒有在原題所提及，所以無相關性，不選

僅供參考喔

[吳]

哈哈 我做題目的時候想說會不會有"黑心柳橙汁"這種東西
所以用other ingredients來做juice也可以

我想太多了...

[hwatai]

這題在考經濟學
類似供需題型還不少
答案主要落在供給端or需求端的變化