GWD13-Q9

[lily4965]

Business Analyst: National Motors began selling the Luxora—its new model of sedan—in June. Last week, National released sales figures for the summer months of June, July, and August that showed that by the end of August only 80,000 Luxoras had been sold. Therefore, National will probably not meet its target of selling 500,000 Luxoras in the model’s first twelve months.

Which of the following would be most useful to establish in order to evaluate the analyst’s prediction?

A. Whether new-car sales are typically lower in the summer months than at any other time of the year
B. Whether National Motors currently produces more cars than any other automaker
C. Whether the Luxora is significantly more expensive than other models produced by National Motors
D. Whether National Motors has introduced a new model in June in any previous year
E. Whether National Motors will suffer serious financial losses if it fails to meet its sales goal for the Luxora

Answer: A

我懷疑答案A：
即然普偏上夏季的銷售量比一年中其他月份差，那並不能支持作者的論點。因為其他幾個月的銷售量普偏上會比夏季月份好，首賣的第一年還是有可能達成目標。

我的選擇是C
因為Luxora的售價若較一般貴，而大眾改買其他車輛的可能性反而較有可能使該Luxora達不到銷售目標。

各位認為呢？

[阿琪]

思路點: 在每個月上sales的差異~

Luxora售價較一般貴，這是該車款的定位，並非思路重點。
Porsche or Mercedes-Benz 都是高價位的車種，每年的銷售量都是很高的…，故這個思路點無法evaluation。

但是Porsche or Mercedes-Benz都可能會面臨到某個月份銷售較低(例如：鬼月-->隨便舉例)

因此開始evaluation:

Yes: 有淡月或旺月-->那銷售就會有變化，summer 就有可能銷售較低是正常的
No: 沒有淡月或旺月-->summer 銷售較低是不正常的

故有效的evaluation

掌握思路點是邏輯要點

[lily4965]

原來我想到文章未提到的因素！
感謝阿琪解惑。