未來兩年整體經濟對admission與找工作的影響?

[baichingchen]

小的正在等admission，也開始想post-MBA career
昨天在business week forum看到關於大環境對申請MBA與就業的討論。焦點當然是放在sub-prime crisis的後續發展。今天也在這看到些許間接的討論。
想知道大家對於這兩年申請MBA與就業的看法。

我認為讀MBA有兩個關：第一關是拿到admission，下一關是一兩年後拿到job offer。第二關的好壞多少決定了這個MBA的短期效益。如Mark Hsu所說，admissible與employable是不同的。而申請學校與找工作的timing對上述兩關有很大的影響。
今年各校的申請人數比去年多，明年預估會更多。供需的改變使得這兩年的申請變的更難。

至於就業市場，不知道2009年與2010年美國、歐洲或亞太地區的大環境對於屆時的畢業生是多是空？小的在倫敦工作，客戶今年的預期調薪budget已從去年的4.0%降到今年的3.5%，許多客戶對於大規模招募也趨於保守。希望我唸完MBA時，就業市場已走出次貸風波的影響…

[clark_chang]

小的正在等admission，也開始想post-MBA career
昨天在business week forum看到關於大環境對申請MBA與就業的討論。焦點當然是放在sub-prime crisis的後續發展。今天也在這看到些許間接的討論。
想知道大家對於這兩年申請MBA與就業的看法。

我認為讀MBA有兩個關：第一關是拿到admission，下一關是一兩年後拿到job offer。第二關的好壞多少決定了這個MBA的短期效益。如Mark Hsu所說，admissible與employable是不同的。而申請學校與找工作的timing對上述兩關有很大的影響。
今年各校的申請人數比去年多，明年預估會更多。供需的改變使得這兩年的申請變的更難。

至於就業市場，不知道2009年與2010年美國、歐洲或亞太地區的大環境對於屆時的畢業生是多是空？小的在倫敦工作，客戶今年的預期調薪budget已從去年的4.0%降到今年的3.5%，許多客戶對於大規模招募也趨於保守。希望我唸完MBA時，就業市場已走出次貸風波的影響…

如果這次的不景氣是真的，那現在只是不景氣剛開始而已
以一個五年週期的景氣循環，大約在2009底落底，會落到多低，我不知道

只是景氣不好，對MBA求職影響很大，對國際學生影響更顯著
提供一個數字供您參考
2002年畢業的HBS台灣留學生，只有一個順利留在米國工作
其餘全部回台灣，當然台灣的工作不會太差
許多拿到job offer的老美畢業生，在過完愉快的暑假後
準備上班之際，收到$10,000的賠償，因為offer被取消了

因為政府規定公司在layoff之後半年（還是一年）不准申請H1
所以更打消公司雇用國際學生的念頭

希望這一波不會這麼慘

[lunar916]

好擔心阿~~~~ @_@
好不容易升請上學校之後卻找不到好工作真的讓人心情不好~
最近連股市都滿糟糕的了....

[baichingchen]

2000年去唸MBA的人真的比較辛苦。

拿到admission時正是dot-com bubble的尾巴，書讀一半bubble破了、飛機摔了，2002年畢業時的市場像是另一個世界。關於02-03畢業生的辛酸故事確實不少。幸好我媽沒那麼早把我生下來...

當初(2006)決定要申請MBA時，心想08 intake應該稍微簡單一點，畢業後的市場也不至於太差，沒想到冒出一個sub-prime crisis，影響多大尚不知道。

不過話說回來，唸MBA的黃金時間大約是26-29歲，太早申請不到好學校，太晚又划不來，一生就只有那三四年的機會，考慮太多反而什麼都做不了，該作的似乎還是得作。

[donahue922]

剛好從Darden的院長Robert Bruner的blog中有看到相關文章，跟大家分享。（http://www.darden.edu/html/deansblog.aspx?id=13012）

The financial crisis is in the headlines again; one of the most frequent questions I get is, “How much longer will this last?” Yesterday, the stock market dropped two percent on news of more loan write-offs at Citigroup. And the general fear is that the malaise in financial firms and housing will spread to other sectors of the U.S. economy and to other countries. Back in August, the conventional wisdom was that this subprime loan mess was a temporary inconvenience. Sam Stovall of S&P was more sober:

“Since 1950 we have had 48 pullbacks - meaning declines of 5 - 10%. We’ve had 18 corrections - meaning 10- 20%, and 8 bear markets. At the worst on average we end up getting back to normal in about 3 1/2 years. But people just don’t want to wait that long and they let fear overtake their emotions.”

He listed a range of possible scenarios: pullback, correction, bear market and “the worst,” by which he probably meant a full financial crisis. By now, we know more about the gravity of the situation.

The correct answer to the question is that I don’t know and I don’t think anyone else does either. However, based on an understanding of previous financial crises, I don’t think that we are close to the inflection point at which the good times resume. Studies[1] of past financial crises yield many insights, the chief of which is the systemic nature of crises—trouble breaks out somewhere and spreads rapidly because of complexity in markets and the absence of adequate shock absorbers. The trouble stops when there are no more losses to be taken, mainly because there are no more assets or institutions at risk (that is, the worst have been dissolved and the others have the capacity to withstand the crisis).

The contagion of crisis ordinarily lasts many months—and this is usually followed by a recession. The end of a crisis might be gauged at two points: (a) “the bottom” or the inflection point at which conditions turn for the better; (b) the point at which the cycle returns to a level of economic activity prevailing before the onset of the crisis. In the Panic of 1907, point (a) occurred in June, 1908, 18 to 26 months after the start of the financial crisis (depending on when you date the onset, either April or December 1906.) And point (b) occurred in mid-1910, about four years after the onset. The crisis of today began (we suppose) some six to 12 months ago.

Studies of recent crises add more doubts. Richard Bookstaber (see his Demon of Our Own Design) argues that the instruments, institutions, and trading strategies in today’s markets increase the complexity dramatically and therefore lower our ability to make sound assessments. Paul Blustein’s The Chastening, recounts the “Asian Flu” crisis and essentially argues that because of this greater complexity, modern crises are different from those a century ago: they last longer. He determines that the “Tequila Crisis,” “Asian Flu,” and Russian Debt Default were linked and part of the same underlying crisis arising from globalization of markets. Similarly, the short-lived Crash of October 1987, the S&L Crisis of the late 1980s and the recession of 1990-91, could be linked by the turbulence induced by sharply-falling oil and gas prices in the mid-1980s.

How today’s financial crisis turns out will surely differ from previous crises. But they bear points in common. One commonality is that these tend not to be brief episodes. Indeed, the future of this crisis will be like the present, only longer.

My advice to MBA students and applicants is still to pursue your long-term career vision. In the near term, we are probably in for some turbulent flying. Don’t get too picky about employment opportunities. Prepare to engage in some missionary selling, to help employers discover your talent. But also, don’t lose confidence about the longer-term prospects. The World Bank projects 4.9% GNP growth for the world economy next year—this is down a shade from 2007 (5.2%) but remains pretty robust. And growth is expected to rise back to 5.1% in 2009. Many fundamental forces are aligning to sustain that kind of growth: technological change, trade liberalization, liberalization of markets, demographic change, etc. The odds seem strong that a new graduate from a top MBA school will face reasonably good demand for his or her skills over the long run.

[MarkHsu]

There is no right & wrong answer, but I think the current subprime crisis offers you a good gut check to see if you really need an MBA.

I see a lot of parallels between 2008 and 2000.

--In 2000, the NASDAQ hit a peak of 5,000+ around March and began its decline. The NASDAQ is now at 2,340.

--Funding for my start-up basically ceased & I backed my bags and headed back home to the US.

--I applied to school in early 2001. (So did everybody else in the world.)

--I got to Columbia in Jan 2002, found a bunch of people who were laid off dot commers but who wanted to do banking/hedge funds/pe. (I thought to myself, either I am stupid or they're stupid.) I decided they're stupid because I didn't see how the financial markets were going to come back. (This was right after 9-11). Withdrew from Columbia.

--I returned to SF. Did Rd 2 interviews, even though I had pretty much decided against going to b school, I re-applied to Wharton for Fall 2002. My interviewer was a Wharton Class of 2001. He had been jobless for 10 months. This confirmed for me that I made the right decision.

To make a long story, I would have been class of 2003 had I gone to b school. Upon graduation, I would have been 30 and most likely jobless and by my calculation, I would have burned through about US$150,000.

As I recall, most of the Taiwanese & Taiwanese-Americans from the Class of 2003 who wanted to work in Asia had a hard time finding work. A lot of people went to Citibank's MA program in Taipei. IB hiring was 0.

2004....things begin to pick up

2005-2007 => bull markets in banking/finance, especially in Asia.

Anyway, timing is everything.

Treat an MBA as an investment. What else can you do with US$150k-200k? What else can you do with 2 yrs of your time? What are your objectives? Is the MBA the only road you can take?

[Strategy]

There is no right & wrong answer, but I think the current subprime crisis offers you a good gut check to see if you really need an MBA.

I see a lot of parallels between 2008 and 2000.

--In 2000, the NASDAQ hit a peak of 5,000+ around March and began its decline. The NASDAQ is now at 2,340.

--Funding for my start-up basically ceased & I backed my bags and headed back home to the US.

--I applied to school in early 2001. (So did everybody else in the world.)

--I got to Columbia in Jan 2002, found a bunch of people who were laid off dot commers but who wanted to do banking/hedge funds/pe. (I thought to myself, either I am stupid or they're stupid.) I decided they're stupid because I didn't see how the financial markets were going to come back. (This was right after 9-11). Withdrew from Columbia.

--I returned to SF. Did Rd 2 interviews, even though I had pretty much decided against going to b school, I re-applied to Wharton for Fall 2002. My interviewer was a Wharton Class of 2001. He had been jobless for 10 months. This confirmed for me that I made the right decision.

To make a long story, I would have been class of 2003 had I gone to b school. Upon graduation, I would have been 30 and most likely jobless and by my calculation, I would have burned through about US$150,000.

As I recall, most of the Taiwanese & Taiwanese-Americans from the Class of 2003 who wanted to work in Asia had a hard time finding work. A lot of people went to Citibank's MA program in Taipei. IB hiring was 0.

2004....things begin to pick up

2005-2007 => bull markets in banking/finance, especially in Asia.

Anyway, timing is everything.

Treat an MBA as an investment. What else can you do with US$150k-200k? What else can you do with 2 yrs of your time? What are your objectives? Is the MBA the only road you can take?

This is really a nice and genuine sharing.

[modern]

這篇不錯,容我頂一下.
把MBA當投資,就會發現買進賣出時機是最重要的.
很遺憾的,MBA只能買進,不能賣出.即使是真有賣出,也就是像Mark這樣drop掉,並沒有保本.

這樣算來, MBA貌似很risky
但 in the long run,那些因為景氣差而拿不到Ibank,consulting job的人,也許還是取得了一個更好的起點,並在三,五年後回到原本該有的高度.那些做了花旗MA的人,也許會在大陸明年開放外資登陸進行人民幣業務這波招人潮中,取得position與薪資的雙重制高點. 因為屆時他們就是稀缺人才. 總之, you never know. 你只能控制能控制的變因, 猜不出景氣何時到頂何時到底,也改不了你爸是誰你媽是誰.

這有點像我們上財務課的時候總是說, in the long run, the market price will be clost to its intrinsic value.
然後老師接著會說一句 " but in the long run, everyone is dead"
所以,分析沒辦法分析的東西就別分析了. 撐著就有希望.

我是03大學畢業的, 02時我大四,因為課已經修完了所以一直就在作intern.
那年就業職場有多慘就不用說了, MBA狀況是一攤死水, 大學本科自然好不到哪去. 大公司HC freeze到比死水還死. 畢業典禮有SARS所以連辦都沒有辦. Gosh! what can I say? 喔對了,還有股市38xx點,近十多年來的史上第二低點(不好意思,34xx點是第一低點,也剛好是我大三!)景氣什麼黑燈都冒了,全台灣籠罩"如果還有明天,你想怎樣花光一個錢"的氣氛(請用唱的...致敬薛岳) 那一仗我敗光了做了三年家教以及補習班老師所賺的點滴薪水...並因此發誓五年內不再碰futures and options...乖乖的上班存錢準備MBA去.

還不只喔.... 求職不順到那個樣子是我完全沒有想到的. 至於像我這種因為當兵又錯過找工作時機的就更慘了.....因為錯過大公司recruiting時機,你幾乎是啥都沒得選了. (所以我是死忠反對義務役的人,或者說要義務役可以,但得設計成不會影響到新鮮人求職,進而影響全社會競爭力的爛制度) 當時整天就想著... gosh, 我起碼也是個拿的出檯面的學歷,起碼也是個英文可以拿來吵架的水平, 起碼從小到大也看了上百本天下遠見財訊雜誌有基礎的business sense...值得這個職場這樣對待我嗎?

出來頂著一頭大光頭,一個月丟出了九十封履歷, 每一封都customized, 最後有回應的只有兩家公司. 總之能多慘就有多慘, 03畢業的就是慘中慘,無以復加的慘.


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我後來還是努力的走回原本想要的track...雖然花了很多力氣,走的很累...但這MBA念完了,工作找著了,也算是回來了.
現在回頭一想,歪路確實走了不少,也是一種學習. 對我這種很謝天感恩的人來說,都還是開心的. 其實人在什麼狀況,只要能調整心態,都還是可以很正面的去看待所來的一切.

想念就去念吧,除非你有更好的投資方案:D

[Wutang]

Modern大大 給你拍拍手

[schlafen]

--I applied to school in early 2001. (So did everybody else in the world.)
--I got to Columbia in Jan 2002,
--I re-applied to Wharton for Fall 2002. My interviewer was a Wharton Class of 2001. He had been jobless for 10 months. This confirmed for me that I made the right decision.
A lot of people went to Citibank's MA program in Taipei. IB hiring was 0.

2004....things begin to pick up
2005-2007 => bull markets in banking/finance, especially in Asia.
Anyway, timing is everything.

No wonder you are always somewhat pessimistic about people going to MBA school. It's a story of tear and blood~~ha.

But I agree with Modern more, you can't calculate everything, so, all we can do is to encourage ourselves. Who knows when the sentiment will turn up again?

BTW, I started my job career smoothly in 2002. (not in financial) . Anyway, thanks for the sharing, Mark.

[modern]

還是得補充一下
在Just do it ,以及nothing is impossible這兩句話說出來,衝下去之前,還是有很多東西得理性考量.

MBA確實最大幫助是畢業該年,以及一兩年內的recruiting .　過了這段黃金期,基本上學歷就真的沒啥用了.

所以,一旦畢業那個offer選錯,之後要修正得花的功夫就費時+費事大了　　

我的結論是....

如果你有富爸爸富媽媽　　真的是　...儘管去念　
我認識花了四百萬念top15回來去搶花旗伍萬元MT/MA的　　也聽說過去搶P&G伍萬元MA/MT的　　
短期的回報也許很低,但長期就是能比沒有該學歷的人爬的快 　反正不急著回報,而且就算沒回報也不會餓死...

如果你要負債才能念,而且壓力很大(自己的,配偶的,組家庭的...etc 壓力)
請盡可能爭取最好的學校 ("好"的定義,就是能幫助你創造就業機會,而且要高薪點,回報快一點)
如果爭取不到...建議不要念　或是參考下面

如果你自認在那場漫長的搶offer戰役中可能會敗下來,手邊資金也不甚夠,卻想要找個新機會
但又非本科系畢業,很想念個MBA補充自己商業知識...
那麼你可以考慮一下美國獎金給的高的學校,或是考慮港科大,港中大,港大,中歐,長江,以及BIMBA.

My 2 cents

[Jason Lee]

那麼你可以考慮一下美國獎金給的高的學校,或是考慮港科大,港中大,港大,中歐,長江,以及BIMBA.

My 2 cents

Speaking of CUHK, I have a question for you, Modern. I was wondering whether you will receive degrees from both CUHK and UCLA since you are doing the exchange program.