[討論]GWD1-Q13=>比率問題整理

[illuna]

Q13:
In the United States, of the people who moved from one state to another when they retired, the percentage who retired to Florida has decreased by three percentage points over the past ten years. Since many local businesses in Florida cater to retirees, this decline is likely to have a noticeably negative economic effect on these businesses.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

A. Florida attracts more people who move from one state to another when they retire than does any other state.
B. The number of people who move out of Florida to accept employment in other states has increased over the past ten years.
C. There are far more local businesses in Florida that cater to tourists than there are local businesses that cater to retirees.
D. The total number of people who retired and moved to another state for their retirement has increased significantly over the past ten years.
E. The number of people who left Florida when they retired to live in another state was greater last year than it was ten years ago.


mike這題我做對但我不知道你選什麼答案所以我只好暫時猜你選C...因為我一開始也是這麼選....

但是後來看題目最後面說「.....on these businesses.」所以我覺得他已經強調是在這方面的產業上衰退而非「Florida整體的經濟」....所以我就不選C...

那為什麼正確答案是D呢...因為D說出一個重點「The total number.......」﹐total number增加﹐但是只要去Florida養老的人數保持不變或是增加的幅度沒有總人數大﹐那除起來的比率都是衰退的﹐但不代表Florida在這方面的產業會因此蕭條。

其他答案：A與題目一開始的「.....the percentage.......decreased」事實就不合﹐故不選。
B和E都是支持文章推論﹐不選。

有關比率的問題通常要注意分子和分母﹐分母變大分子不變或分母不變分子變小都會得到decline的事實。

[QQcandy]

I also have a question to this. it mentioned that "the percentage who retired to Florida has decreased ....". is it means "移居到佛州的退休人士的比例" ? or "在佛州退休的人士的比例" ?

[illuna]

我想題目在這邊已經講得很清楚....
In the United States, of the people who moved from one state to another when they retired, the percentage who retired to Florida has decreased by three percentage points over the past ten years

所以應該是指退休後移居到Florida ;)

[QQcandy]

嗯...那這樣我了解答案為什麼選 "D" 了

謝啦

[訪客]

20. A rise in the percentage of all 18-year-olds who were recruited by the armed services of a small republic between 1980 and 1986 correlates with a rise in the percentage of young people who dropped out of high school in that republic. Since 18-year-olds in the republic are generally either high school graduates or high school dropouts, the correlation leads to the conclusion that the republic’s recruitment rates for 18-year-olds depend substantially on recruitment rates for high school dropouts.

Which one of the following statements, if true, most weakens the argument?

A. A large number of 18-year-old high school graduates were recruited for the republic’s armed services in 1986 than in 1980.
B. Many of the high-technology systems used by the republic’s armed services can be operated only by individuals who have completed a high school education.
C. Between 1980 and 1986 the percentage of high school graduates among 18-year-olds recruited in the republic rose sharply.
D. Personnel of the republic’s armed services are strongly encouraged to finish their high school education.
E. The proportion of recruits who had completed at least two years of college education was greater in 1986 than in 1980.

參考答案：C
思路：題目的核心是要否定percentage of dropouts 與 percentage of recruitment的因果關係
A：典型的混淆相對數概念和絕對數概念，文中比較的是比率，選項給的是絕對數；
B：無關選項，和題目的核心比率沒有太大關係。Tips: 注意many... only by.....這種表述。
C：正確，指出結論的錯誤屬於false dilemma。
D：無關選項。此類錯誤屬於false appeal。tips:注意.....（機構或人）strongly encourage something
E：無關選項，percentage of those completed college education和題目的核心比率沒有太大關係。

[betterflyaz]

請問這題答案到底是c還是d???
我也覺得應該是c,因為文中已經講了過去10年到florida的人少了3個百分點,
所以d中說過去10年所有退休人搬到別州的總百分點增加不會影響文中的statement.

[global1018]

請問這題答案到底是c還是d???
我也覺得應該是c,因為文中已經講了過去10年到florida的人少了3個百分點,
所以d中說過去10年所有退休人搬到別州的總百分點增加不會影響文中的statement.

我也覺得是c耶...
因為題目裡面就已經說過去三年來移居佛羅理達州的人數在減少
所以不管過去十年來退休後移居他州的人是如何增加
都不會影響題目已經說的"退休後移居佛州人數減少"的情況
但是若佛羅里達州的這些local business 不只是迎合退休者,還迎合觀光客
那人數減少就不一定會影響佛州的經濟

能不能請大家再討論一下答案究竟是哪個~~~thanks

[agk99]

illuna說:
那為什麼正確答案是D呢...因為D說出一個重點「The total number.......」﹐total number增加﹐但是只要去Florida養老的人數保持不變或是增加的幅度沒有總人數大﹐那除起來的比率都是衰退?滿M但不代表Florida在這方面的產業會因此蕭條。

我覺得重點就是人數可能不變，只是分母擴大，導致比率降低，所以生意還是很多，weaken argument

C不妥的理由是，即使有更多的旅行業，也無法抵擋退休人口真的變少的事實，畢竟題目沒說旅客比以前增加

[global1018]

呼~~~終於懂了
我沒有注意到題目裡的percentage啦
希望考試時能罩子放亮點
謝謝大哥了

[sleek]

請教A
難道不能假設分母(total 移居人口)亦同時增加,惟增加幅度大於分子(移居至F州的人口),造成比率下跌3%嗎?
如果上述假設成立--1.並無與題目敍述不符2.雖然比率下跌,但因人口增加,故該產業並不會有負面之影響,weaken.

[poli]

我想你這個假設並沒有在A選項中可以見到，
應該不能在答案外另外自己假設吧...
A答案中僅僅只說 F吸引退休的人比其他州多，
但是並不能改變跟之前比起來，吸引的人數變少的事實。

[freeisland]

我也覺得答案是D

因為文中提到的 negative economic effect on "these businesses" 是指"businesses in Florida cater to retirees", 所以C中提到的business in Florida that cater to tourists 就沒有weaken的作用了