[問題]大全2-15

[vitality]

2-15

Six months or so after getting a video recorder, many early buyers apparently lost interest in obtaining videos to watch on it. The trade of businesses selling and renting videos is still buoyant, because the number of homes with video recorders is still growing. But clearly, once the market for video recorders is saturated, businesses distributing videos face hard times.

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the conclusion above?

(A) The market for video recorders would not be considered saturated
until there was one in 80 percent of homes

(B) Among the items handled by video distributors are many films
specifically produced as video features.

(C) Few of the early buyers of video recorders raised any complaints
about performance aspects of the new product.

(D) The early buyers of a novel product are always people who are quick
to acquire novelties, but also often as quick to tire of them

(E) In a shrinking market, competition always intensifies and marginal
businesses fail

答案為什麼是(D)呢 合理的解釋是???
先謝謝各位啦~~

[Pufa]

題目說：
recorder的市場飽和時，business disturbing videos就完蛋了。
D說：
早期使用recorder的人很容易就會對recorder失去興趣、不再使用。

那就表示這個市場永遠不會飽和，作者的論點就被推翻囉。

[vitality]

謝謝Pufa的回答 ^^

不過我還有一個地方小不懂 就是the early buyers對recorde不再感興趣

和市場的飽和度中間的關係為何? 不大了解為何兩者相關

是指這些early buyers of a novel product很快就會對他們當初所買的recorders

失去興趣 而會想要購買新的recorder 所以市場才不會飽和嗎?

[Pufa]

我的解讀是
那些最先使用recorder的人一下子就不想使用recorder了，意思就是不會再買了。

真正嚴謹的解題方式還是得請前輩們回答。

[Calvin]

這題是犯了「以偏概全」的錯誤

原題邏輯走向是：
A：早期買recorder的人在六個月後就明顯對recorder失去興趣不再使用
B：雖然買recorder市場仍在成長，但一旦市場飽和了，video industry就會面臨難關

要使A合理推向結論B，中間一定是存在了一個假設是「所有買recorders的消費者都跟the early buyers一樣用了六個月就會失去興趣，不再使用」

答案D就是點出了這個邏輯錯誤，說早期會買的那些人本來就是很容易厭倦新產品的人，意即後期買的人們並不會六個月後就get tired of their recorders，因為會繼續使用，即使買recorders的市場不再成長了，selling and renting vedio industry也不會face hard time.

FYI

[vitality]

原來如此阿 我了解了 謝謝Calvin

[dibert8]

解題關鍵是反駁"once the market for video recorders is saturated"

(D) 喜新厭舊型的消費者
我的解讀是因為喜新厭舊,所以會再去買新的,那 video recorders 的市場就不會飽和;假設錯誤,後面的結論就不會發生.

題目說 early buyers 買 video recorder 六個月後就不再對 obtaining videos 感興趣(不想在舊的那一台上面看), 應該不是說對 video recorder 不感興趣.

(A) 這樣說,市場還是終究會飽和
(B) video features 題目沒有,無法據以反駁
(C) complaints about performance 題目沒有,無法據以反駁
(E) 支持