[問題]大全10-13

[shena]

Exports of United States wood pulp will rise considerably during this year. The reason for the rise is that the falling value of the dollar will make it cheaper for paper manufacturers in Japan and Western Europe to buy American wood pulp than to get it from any other source.
Which of the following is an assumption made in drawing the conclusion above?

(A) Factory output of paper products in Japan and Western Europe will increase sharply during this year.
(B) The quality of the wood pulp produced in the United States would be adequate for the purposes of Japanese and Western European paper manufacturers.
(C) Paper manufacturers in Japan and Western Europe would prefer to use wood pulp produced in the United States if cost were not a factor.
(D) Demand for paper products made in Japan and Western Europe will not increase sharply during this year.
(E) Production of wood pulp by United States companies will not increase sharply during this year.

Ans:(B)

題目說美國今年木材紙漿的出口量將會增加
原因是美元貶值所以西歐和日本的造紙工廠向美國購買紙漿較其他來源便宜
問assumption
答案(B)我選(D)
其ㄧ是不懂(B)提到的品質和假設有何關聯?
選(D)的思路是因為如果日本和西歐今年紙類製品的需求增加=>對紙漿的需求增加=>紙漿價格上漲 會和本文牴觸

請問哪裡出問題呢??(其實自己也覺得思路怪怪的...但就是沒辦法自圓其說品質到底冒出來幹麻? )

[sklpeng]

題幹思路是說美元貶是造成export上升的原因

前提如B所述:必須排除成本以外,影響日本西歐等國進口意願的原因
B選給的是品質ok可用,事實上還有其他的寫法,如品質不是concern
或whatever與錢無關的因素不在日本西歐的考慮範圍
間接support美元貶值才是真正使export上升的原因

選(D)的思路是因為如果日本和西歐今年紙類製品的需求增加=>對紙漿的需求增加=>紙漿價格上漲 會和本文牴觸

樓主的想法有偏差,assumption應是使結論成立的因素,而非與本文抵觸的

[小晃兄]

請問C為何不對，請各位牛牛指教，謝謝。
我的想法如下：
不考量成本，日本及西歐較喜歡美國的wood pulp，現在剛好美金下跌，向美國買wood pulp 最便宜，符合不考量成本的前提，可以合理推論美國出口wood pulp會增加

[小晃兄]

我想通了，C 的範圍錯誤，它討論的是cost is not a factor的情況
可是文章中cost is a factor
不知思路是否正確，請各位牛牛指教

[dibert8]

即使 cost is a factor, 也不影響結論啊! 東西便宜了,歐日更可能多加採購啊!
我覺得 (C) 是比較好的選項.
題目壓根兒沒提到 quality, 拿來作前提蠻不合理?不知這要如何推至題目的結論:價格下跌,歐日購買增加,因此出口增加?? 前提應該是歐日會買美國木漿吧! quality 跟會不會買,還有一段距離吧,而且還 adequate 而已也! 我想如果這前提對了,那必須再假設沒有其他競爭者,如歐日本土的供應商.如果要扯到 quality 可以做前提的就多了.例如國際關係,關稅,策略聯盟,發揮想像力吧...
(C) 如果不是美國賣太貴,歐日是青睞美國木漿的,這已經越過 quality 更上一層樓了.意思不就是美國降價,歐日下單嗎?
=> (B) ??