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FormosaMBA 傷心咖啡店 • 查看主题 - [問題] OG 61

[問題] OG 61

邏輯思維的訓練,考試戰場上的對決

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[問題] OG 61

帖子evelight » 2005-04-22 15:47

61. The recent decline in the value of the dollar was triggered by a prediction of slower economic growth in the
coming year. But that prediction would not have adversely affected the dollar had it not been for the
government’s huge budget deficit, which must therefore be decreased to prevent future currency declines.
Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the conclusion about how to prevent future
currency declines?

(A) The government has made little attempt to reduce the budget deficit.
(B) The budget deficit has not caused a slowdown in economic growth.
(C) The value of the dollar declined several times in the year prior to the recent prediction of slower economic
growth.
(D) Before there was a large budget deficit, predictions of slower economic growth frequently caused
declines in the dollar's value.
(E) When there is a large budget deficit, other events in addition to predictions of slower economic growth
sometimes trigger declines in currency value.

Ans: D

OG對B的解釋是:
Since no slowdown in economic growth is asserted, what might cause such a slowdown is
irrelevant. Thus, choice B is inappropriate.

我發現自己搞不懂ETS的思路。
既然B宣稱赤字從以前到現在都沒有造成經濟成長遲緩,某種程度上也該算是反駁(雖然不比正確答案D好)。但OG的理由是,既然沒有造成,那麼到底是什麼造成遲緩也就不重要了。

嗚....這是啥米跟啥米啊
我的腦筋轉不過來了 ;''(
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帖子Behemoth » 2005-04-22 16:02

B的解釋意思是說

本文中既然沒提到slowdown的發生
那麼what cause the slowdown就更是無關了
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帖子evelight » 2005-04-22 16:10

OG對C的解釋我也不大明白
Since C supports the claim that a budget deficit is the underlying
cause of the currency decline, C is inappropriate.

要從哪裡看出來呢?

我的想法是:
因為題目建立了以下關係:若有赤字,經濟成長遲緩的預測才會影響美元
而C是說:在預測發布前的同一年,美元已經掉了好幾次
所以預測和美元其實沒有什麼關係
加上C沒有提到deficit,我頂多認為它是『沒有反駁』,還不至於OG所說的『支持』

B和C要一併麻煩大大們解答了~ Tks~~
Crystal Wu
Georgetown MBA of 2008
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帖子evelight » 2005-04-22 16:24

可是我還是沒領會為什麼這樣的B會是inappropriate


剛下去想了想
OG的邏輯會不會是:
因為B說題目所討論的slow down in economic growth沒發生過
所以討論『是什麼因素造成一個不存在的現象』,根本沒意義。

可是這樣也有問題,因為B只是說,deficit從來沒有造成slow down in economic
並不是說slow down in economic這個現象從來沒有發生過。

愈解愈亂了 :sad
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帖子liwuu » 2005-04-27 13:12

題目建立的關係如你所述:造成dollar value decline最主要是因為巨額政府赤字而非經濟成長趨緩
所以要反駁的話,就是如同D,沒有huge赤字時,經濟成長趨緩就影響了

B的解釋為題目目標放在dollar value的下降,而非economic growth的下降,但B談到是有關economic growth的下降,因此為無關選項!!

C的解釋為目前有兩大因素會影響dollar value decline,C說到在預期經濟成長趨緩前,dollar value就已經下降幾次了,也就是暗指huge赤字為幣值下降的因素!!
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帖子lunar916 » 2005-10-02 11:28

想好久... 稍微總結我的想法

The recent decline in the value of the dollar (1) was triggered by a prediction of slower economic growth (2) in the coming year. But that prediction would not have adversely affected the dollar had it not been for the government’s huge budget deficit (3), which must therefore be decreased to prevent future currency declines.

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the conclusion [(3) decrease so (1) decrease)] about how to prevent future
currency declines?

[so the premise is (3) > (2) > (1), and we need to weaken the conclusion that (3) decrease > (1) decrease]

(A) The government has made little attempt to reduce the budget deficit.
[government's attempt is irrelevant here]
(B) The budget deficit has not caused a slowdown in economic growth.
[看起來好像是 (3) not> (2), 好像有weaken的效果, 可是(2)其實是 prediction of slower economic growth]
(C) The value of the dollar declined several times in the year prior to the recent prediction of slower economic growth.
[(2) not> (1), 有weaken的效果,可是是間接的]
(D) Before there was a large budget deficit, predictions of slower economic growth frequently caused declines in the dollar's value.
[直接說不管有沒有(3),都可以 (2) > (1), 所以其實跟本(3) decrease > (1) decrease 是不對的relationship]
(E) When there is a large budget deficit, other events in addition to predictions of slower economic growth sometimes trigger declines in currency value.
[conclusion講的是(3)縮小,這裡講的是(3)很大,沒啥關係]


=====

想了好久....
做題時覺得BCDE都有weaken的作用,根本選不出來
很懷疑這樣要怎麼考試...
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帖子chenfruit » 2005-10-02 17:28

小小看法,一定不夠縝密,歡迎各位批評...

題目 前提:
1. 經濟成長緩慢預測 --->貨幣下跌
2. 但 要有"政府赤字上升" 這個前提才會發生上面事實
( 政府赤字上升 + 低成長預測---->貨幣下跌)

結論: 政府赤字下降+ 沒有低成長預測---->貨幣上升
D - &  ~P ----> V +


weaken結論   
D+ & P
D+ & ~P ----> V +
D- & P 
        
D+ & P
D+ & ~P ----> V -
D- & P 


support結論(若P--Q;非Q則非P)  
D- & ~ P ----> V +
V- ----> D+ & P

     
(A) 無關選項

(B) 政府赤字不會造成經濟緩慢,但仍無法weaken "預測"這個因素
(用他因也可造此果weaken?題目也沒說)

(C) V- ---> (D+?) & P ,所以有可能會support

(D) D- & P ---> V -   weaken選項

(E)
D- & 其他因素 -->sometimes V- (有可能weaken)
D- & 其他因素 -->sometimes V+ (有可能support)
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帖子lunar916 » 2005-10-03 10:40

chenfruit \$m[1]:小小看法,一定不夠縝密,歡迎各位批評...

題目 前提:
1. 經濟成長緩慢預測 --->貨幣下跌
2. 但 要有"政府赤字上升" 這個前提才會發生上面事實
( 政府赤字上升 + 低成長預測---->貨幣下跌)

結論: 政府赤字下降+ 沒有低成長預測---->貨幣上升
D - &  ~P ----> V +


weaken結論   
D+ & P
D+ & ~P ----> V +
D- & P 
        
D+ & P
D+ & ~P ----> V -
D- & P 


support結論(若P--Q;非Q則非P)  
D- & ~ P ----> V +
V- ----> D+ & P

     
(A) 無關選項

(B) 政府赤字不會造成經濟緩慢,但仍無法weaken "預測"這個因素
(用他因也可造此果weaken?題目也沒說)

(C) V- ---> (D+?) & P ,所以有可能會support

(D) D- & P ---> V -   weaken選項

(E)
D- & 其他因素 -->sometimes V- (有可能weaken)
D- & 其他因素 -->sometimes V+ (有可能support)


我想了一想 ,覺得直接的weaken應該是
D+ & ~P ----> V +
D- & ~P ----> V -

by holding ~P constant, we oppose the relationship that [D- -> V+]

the answer choice (D) suggest regardless of D, P will cause V-
so choice (D) should really be
D+/- & P ---> V -

對於
D+ & P----> V +
D- & P----> V +
        
D+ & P----> V -
D- & P----> V -

我覺得他門單獨都無法weaken

請討論
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帖子lunar916 » 2005-10-03 10:41

chenfruit \$m[1]:小小看法,一定不夠縝密,歡迎各位批評...

題目 前提:
1. 經濟成長緩慢預測 --->貨幣下跌
2. 但 要有"政府赤字上升" 這個前提才會發生上面事實
( 政府赤字上升 + 低成長預測---->貨幣下跌)

結論: 政府赤字下降+ 沒有低成長預測---->貨幣上升
D - &  ~P ----> V +


weaken結論   
D+ & P
D+ & ~P ----> V +
D- & P 
        
D+ & P
D+ & ~P ----> V -
D- & P 


support結論(若P--Q;非Q則非P)  
D- & ~ P ----> V +
V- ----> D+ & P

     
(A) 無關選項

(B) 政府赤字不會造成經濟緩慢,但仍無法weaken "預測"這個因素
(用他因也可造此果weaken?題目也沒說)

(C) V- ---> (D+?) & P ,所以有可能會support

(D) D- & P ---> V -   weaken選項

(E)
D- & 其他因素 -->sometimes V- (有可能weaken)
D- & 其他因素 -->sometimes V+ (有可能support)


我想了一想 ,覺得直接的weaken應該是
D+ & ~P ----> V +
D- & ~P ----> V -

by holding ~P constant, we oppose the relationship that [D- -> V+]

the answer choice (D) suggest regardless of D, P will cause V-
so choice (D) should really be
D+/- & P ---> V -

對於
D+ & P----> V +
D- & P----> V +
        
D+ & P----> V -
D- & P----> V -

我覺得他門單獨都無法weaken

請討論
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帖子catyhsin » 2007-10-28 21:52

最簡單的找答案方法, 就是看選項中有沒有提到budget deficit, 因為這是關鍵啊. 要weaken結論, 就是要找這個key word.

我雖然對B,C也存疑, 但是靠這一點, 選了D.
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帖子chris8888 » 2007-12-17 14:34

But that prediction would not have adversely affected the dollar had it not been for the
government’s huge budget deficit, which must therefore be decreased to prevent future currency declines.

有誰可以拆解這句的文法架構? 我不太懂句子結構.

但我知道題目D是對的
文章是說, 預測並不會不利的影響貨幣, 這個下滑並非因為政府的預算赤字, 而預算赤字才是真正造成下滑的主因. <== 重點是, 她認為預測不會造成, 因為是預算赤字

D : 在赤字造成前, 一大堆的預測行為造成頻繁的下滑(很像實際的市場行為厚? 一個風聲草動, 股市或是幣值就會暴漲或是崩跌)
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帖子Huang Hsin-Yi » 2008-01-16 20:44

But that prediction would not have adversely affected the dollar had it not been for the
government’s huge budget deficit, which must therefore be decreased to prevent future currency declines


對阿.對阿.


我就是看不懂這句所以才解不出來
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帖子chris8888 » 2008-01-21 14:12

The recent decline in the value of the dollar was triggered by a prediction of slower economic growth in the coming year.
最近的幣值上的下滑被下滑的來年的經濟成長預測所促發.
But that prediction would not have adversely affected the dollar had it not been for the government's huge budget deficit, which must therefore be decreased to prevent future currency declines.
但是, 這項預測可以不要負面的影響幣值, 只要先前的預測不是指政府的巨額預算赤字, 而這赤字必然因此被下降去預防未來的貨幣貶值.

總結 :
貶值 <-- 下滑的經濟成長預測
但是(但是才會考), 貶值 <-- 只要這預測不是政府的預算赤字預測, 那預測將不會負面的影響

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the conclusion about how to prevent future currency declines?
找推翻, 就是要說事實上就是經濟預測下滑造成. 儘管伴隨著政府的預算赤字

(A) The government has made little attempt to reduce the budget deficit.
政府的企圖不是重點 (請針對經濟預測, 以及政府赤字)
(B) The budget deficit has not caused a slowdown in economic growth.
預算赤字並沒有造成經濟成長的下滑, 這一選項是有點是支持選項, 文章說只要不是政府的預算赤字, 那麼這項經濟預測就不會有負面影響幣值, 而此選項只是說明兩者無關, 但無法提供推翻
(請針對經濟預測, 以及政府赤字)
(C) The value of the dollar declined several times in the year prior to the recent prediction of slower economic growth.
最近較低的經濟成長預測之前, 幣值下滑了好幾次, 次數也不會是重點. 沒提到預算赤字 (請針對經濟預測, 以及政府赤字)
(D) Before there was a large budget deficit, predictions of slower economic growth frequently caused declines in the dollar's value.
在巨額赤字發生之前, 較低的經濟成長預測常常造成貶值. 所以題目說只要先前不是政府的鉅額貿易赤字, 那麼較低的經濟成長預測不會負面的影響幣值, 就可以推翻了.
(請針對經濟預測, 以及政府赤字<==終於兩個都提到了)
(E) When there is a large budget deficit, other events in addition to predictions of slower economic growth sometimes trigger declines in currency value.
當有了預算赤字時, 除了較低的經濟成長之外, 還有其他事件促發了貶值, 不要談其他, 什麼other than / other event / other .... 通常是無關選項.
(請針對經濟預測, 以及政府赤字<==本選項有提到, 但是卻涉及其他事件, 無關指涉)


But that prediction would not have adversely affected the dollar had it not been for the government's huge budget deficit, which must therefore be decreased to prevent future currency declines.
還原子句
=> But that prediction would not have adversely affected the dollar, only if that prediction had not been for the government's huge budget deficit, which must therefore be decreased to prevent future currency declines.
因為主詞相同, 原句省略掉了相同的主詞, 共用了一個主詞.
would not have 搭配 had not been <== 翻譯為假若過去不是 ..., 那麼接下來就不會 ...
過去完成式表達更早先的一件事若如何如何, 那麼接下來的事就會是如何如何
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帖子chencraig0227 » 2008-05-15 16:24

Huang Hsin-Yi \$m[1]:But that prediction would not have adversely affected the dollar had it not been for the
government’s huge budget deficit
, which must therefore be decreased to prevent future currency declines


對阿.對阿.


我就是看不懂這句所以才解不出來


假設法→與過去事實相反的假設

1、If ...S1 had have/been...., S2 would have...
2、(倒裝) Had S1 have(been)...,S2 would have...

反紅的部份即為2號句構。
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